Aplicación del modelo matemático para la vigilancia y control de la propagación del dengue en Tumbes

Dengue disease is caused by the DENV virus spread by the female Aedes aegypti mosquito. Four different serotypes have been distinguished: DENV-1, -2, -3 and -4. The economic burden of dengue disease and the size of the population at risk confirm the global importance of this infection. The direct and indirect costs of dengue are large, coupled with the costs of medical care, surveillance, vector control, and lost productivity that can be estimated at approximately US$39 billion per year. In the Americas, the economy and society, the costs of dengue have been estimated between US$1 billion and US$4 billion each year. The clinical manifestation includes headache, arthralgia, sudden high fever, eye pain, nausea, and muscle pain. Currently, there is no specific treatment for dengue. The efficacy of the vaccine directed at young patients depends on previous immunity to dengue and provides heterogeneous protection against the different serotypes. The department of Tumbes, Peru, is considered a hyperendemic area for dengue because all four serotypes of the virus circulate. In this work, the spread of dengue in the department of Tumbes was estimated for the year 2022, applying the methodology of a mathematical model for the surveillance and control of the spread of this disease based on the SIR model proposed by Kermack & McKendrick.