Gasto público y desnutrición crónica infantil en Huancavelica, Perú: un análisis de datos de panel (2012-2024)

Objective To determine the association between public spending on social programs and investment in health with chronic child malnutrition (CCM) in the Huancavelica region, Peru, during the period 2012-2024. Method An applied, explanatory, longitudinal, non-experimental study was conducted using 91 observations from the Demographic and Family Health Survey and the Integrated Financial Management System of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, employing a panel data model with random effects. A Lin-Log transformation was applied to capture semi-elasticities, and robustness was validated using the Wooldridge, Wald, and VIF tests, in addition to the Granger causality test to define the directionality of the variables. Results The model showed high explanatory power (R² = 80.91%). Investment in health showed the greatest effect (−57.48), indicating that a 1% increase reduces the rate of CCM by 0.57 percentage points. The Qali Warma, Cuna Mas, and Juntos programs also demonstrated significant protective effects. The Granger test confirmed a unidirectional causality from public spending to CCM ( P < 0.001). Conclusion Public spending is a precursor and predictor of regional health improvement. The findings demonstrate proactive resource management, underscoring the importance of budgetary continuity to consolidate the structural impact on childhood.