Pronóstico del número de casos confirmados y muertes por covid-19 mediante el modelo de crecimiento logístico en los países sudamericanos

The objective of this study is to present long-term forecasts of the accumulated number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 per million inhabitants from the first confirmed case to day 350 in each South American country, using the logistic growth model with three parameters. From the study it was observed that the parameters of the logistics models in each country were significant, adequately representing their projections, presenting the real values on the projected logistics curve in each country. Comparing the forecasts of the number of confirmed cases and deaths, it was observed that Paraguay, Peru and Argentina will take longer to significantly reduce the number of confirmed cases and Argentina in the number of deaths. On the other hand, Venezuela and Uruguay present the number of confirmed cases and deaths accumulated almost constantly, that is, there will be no significant increases during the following months.